Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 18.955950 20.581140 22.371490 24.507976 27.012419 29.886582 33.481880
2024-10-13 16.458278 18.595673 21.122775 24.395109 28.623017 34.062036 41.889947
2024-10-20 14.597361 16.940731 19.849859 23.847926 29.419355 37.309190 50.249244
2024-10-27 13.808238 16.427399 19.832489 24.796212 32.283816 44.101692 66.950325
2024-11-03 12.818928 15.506137 19.111470 24.591256 33.360321 48.454961 82.277111
2024-11-10 12.103983 14.855971 18.652860 24.648465 34.798735 53.878795 104.439951
2024-11-17 11.540675 14.347589 18.318132 24.811603 36.411859 60.259934 137.017704
2024-11-24 11.047940 13.887614 17.992705 24.919417 37.924900 67.129294 184.586304
2024-12-01 10.533364 13.351871 17.494471 24.656795 38.653761 72.540724 242.921169
2024-12-08 10.142020 12.964844 17.184463 24.666674 39.927743 80.157493 354.823675
2024-12-15 9.744603 12.540512 16.776671 24.444014 40.651512 86.715611 529.840260
2024-12-22 9.376657 12.137098 16.368919 24.168488 41.196866 93.191700 864.988176
2024-12-29 9.044408 11.774325 16.008541 23.956456 41.897146 101.124980 1896.551501
2025-01-05 8.751272 11.455966 15.698962 23.807963 42.738187 110.665334 12224.830530
2025-01-12 8.412348 11.049646 15.215870 23.267601 42.468538 115.295944 NaN
2025-01-19 8.345845 11.064270 15.441888 24.170523 46.300731 146.102876 NaN
2025-01-26 8.104585 10.789263 15.150283 23.971755 46.998403 160.682725 NaN
2025-02-02 7.919649 10.595283 14.986888 24.025598 48.482828 184.696883 NaN
2025-02-09 7.762187 10.437774 14.876833 24.181452 50.355406 218.585186 NaN
2025-02-16 7.607092 10.276721 14.749609 24.284535 52.113669 260.199670 NaN
2025-02-23 7.412868 10.043392 14.478019 24.032995 52.594930 290.459483 NaN
2025-03-02 7.264952 9.880602 14.326230 24.042434 54.045749 347.756675 NaN
2025-03-09 7.096590 9.677449 14.089140 23.829152 54.621607 397.951335 NaN